It looks like I overestimated one of the candidates and underestimated the other… I should have been more careful on a candidate who had such a little campaign and suddenly hit a HUGE bump. But sadly it was short lived.


If you haven’t figured it out already, I am speaking of Huckabee. Had he won in SC, then he would have probably stayed as front runner and definitely had a chance of winning Florida and the nomination. Sadly, he was running on pure adrenaline, and it completely wore out after his loss in SC. This is such a huge loss because it was a state with such a large evangelical vote. With his many years as governor I expected the campaign (after he became a frontrunner) to shift to a message about being more experienced and about the economy and similar social issues. Sadly he continued to play in his home court, moral issues, which he would have won no matter what. I think this was dumb, but who am I to say…


I would just about call Huckabee out of the race now. His chances of winning Florida are very slim, and after losing Florida he has little chance of winning the nomination. He would still play well in many states (especially evangelical ones), but he wouldn’t have much of a winning strategy, only a doing well strategy. Thompson ought to just drop out and endorse McCain. He has no chance of winning…


Giuliani still has put all his chips on Florida, but he’s not exactly winning it. And with the boost McCain will get from SC, I think he has the best chance of winning. And if Giuliani loses Florida, he might as well drop out also. He has no future without that win.


Lastly, Romney, to my chagrin, has done better then expected. Although you may not be able to purchase a win from the more popular early states like Iowa, NH, and SC. Clearly you can buy such states as Wyoming, Nevada, and Michigan. Although I still don’t expect him to win the nomination, I expect he’ll get 2nd or 3rd in Florida and then do surprisingly well on Super Tuesday thanks to the endless amount of money he can spread across all the states remaining no matter how badly he performs previously. I definitely see him as the runner up to McCain for the future.


As for McCain, he is the frontrunner and has the momentum to win it all. I expect he’ll win Florida and from there use that momentum to carry himself to the national convention. After all of these years, it looks like he might REALLY do it this time around!