Politics In Moderation

Recently I made my own prediction of what I think will happen come November in the General Election. As you can see, I have Obama winning without even the swing states of Ohio and Florida. Some may think this is crazy, but I believe this math (depending on the future) is a very possible scenario, especially after the bump Obama gets now that Clinton has left. I will update this as time goes by…

The swing states I gave Obama were CO, NM, IA, MN, WI, MI, and NH.

The swing states I gave McCain were NV, IN, VA, NC, SC, GA, and MO.

Any of these states could go to the other candidate, but looking at polls and history, I think this is a very logical result. The Vice Presidency choice will also possibly effect the math, but not necessarily. I should also mention that Nebraska is divided by congressional district, so its possible Obama could lose the state, but still get a few electoral votes.

Ohio and Florida are currently just too close to call. But if I had to guess, I would give Ohio to Obama and Florida to McCain. Once again though, I think this math is very fair to both sides. And Obama has a very good chance of picking of Nevada, Virginia, and maybe even Georgia/South Carolina/North Carolina. With Libertarian Bob Barr running, McCain may lose enough votes in those states to be crippled…

Here are the results from the 2004 election:

Here was a map recently created based on current polling data:

What do you think?